Market Outlook
October 04, 2018
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are likely to open negative tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
(1.5)
(551)
35,976
U.S. stocks saw notable strength in morning trading on Wednesday before giving
Nifty
(1.4)
(150)
10,858
back some ground in the afternoon. Despite the pullback by the major averages, the
Mid Cap
(1.1)
(164)
14,676
Dow still ended the session at a new record closing high. While the Dow rose 0.2
Small Cap
0.2
29
14,424
percent to 26,828 and the Nasdaq climbed 0.3 percent to 8,025.
Bankex
(1.5)
(434)
27,835
UK stocks were marginally higher in cautious trade on Wednesday and the pound
held near three-week low as investors awaited U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May's
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
speech at Conservative Conference for directional cues. The FTSE 100 was up by
0.1 percent at 7,482.
Dow Jones
0.2
55
26,828
Nasdaq
0.3
25
8,025
On domestic front, Indian stocks tumbled on Wednesday, with selling accelerating in
FTSE
0.1
08
7,482
late trade as the rupee continued to weaken, oil prices held near four-year highs
and turmoil in Italy soured investors' risk appetite. The BSE Sensex was down by
Nikkei
(0.7)
(160)
24,111
1.5% to 35,976.
Hang Seng
(0.1)
(35)
27,091
Shanghai Com
1.1
30
2,821
News Analysis
Shriram Transport Finance Company withdraws guarantee for subsidiary's
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
NCDs
Advances
527
299
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Declines
2,128
1,480
Unchanged
146
278
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Volumes (` Cr)
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
BSE
1,820
Refer Pg5 onwards
NSE
853
Top Picks
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
580
867
49.5
FII
(1,077)
(1,418)
(6,857)
Dewan Housing Finance
Financials
Buy
317
555
75.3
*MFs
1,125
3,967
80,584
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
249
410
64.7
Bata India
Others
Buy
915
1,243
35.8
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
370
589
59.2
More Top Picks on Pg4
IL&FSTRANS
32
19.3
INFIBEAM
77
14.8
Key Upcoming Events
Previous
Consensus
COX&KINGS
195
12.3
Date
Region
Event Description
ReadingExpectations
NATIONALUM
69
11.5
Oct 05, 2018 US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
201.00
IBREALEST
91
10.0
Oct 05, 2018 US
Unnemployment rate
3.90
Oct 05, 2018 India
RBI Reverse Repo rate
52.80
Oct 05, 2018 India
RBI Repo rate
201.00
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Oct 05, 2018 India
Producer Price Index (mom)
-
More Events on Pg7
IIFL
483
-7.0
EICHERMOT
23171
-6.7
M&M
791
-6.7
BATAINDIA
915
-5.8
MUTHOOTFIN
401
-5.8
As on Oct 3, 2018
Market Outlook
October 04, 2018
News Analysis
Shriram Transport Finance Company withdraws guarantee for
subsidiary's NCDs
its corporate guarantee for non-convertible debentures (NCDs) issued by its
subsidiary Shriram Ventures. The NCDs were issued in June last year and have a
face value of Rs6.5 billion. “The contingent liability of STFC with respect to
redemption/maturity of the said NCDs stands terminated,” said the exchange
filing. These NCDs will mature in June 2019. Umesh Revankar, managing director
and chief executive officer, STFC, said last month that SVL was trying to address
the issue of default on NCDs on its own. If the guarantee is invoked, it will be
borne by the promoters concerned and the financials of STFC will not be affected,
he added.
SVL had planned to sell its stake in key operating subsidiaries to fund its loan
liabilities, but that did not happen. In an exchange filing in July this
year, STFC said SVL, its promoters, and the promoter group and its associates
have enough resources to honour the payment of this loan whenever due. Bankers
said in July that they would invoke the corporate guarantee provided by STFC,
given that the SVL group companies were facing insolvency proceedings.
According to analysts, STFC’s book value would have had to take a hit of 4-5 per
cent if the guarantee given to SVL was invoked. In FY18, SVL reported a net loss of
Rs 3.15 billion on an operating income of Rs 533 million, compared to a net loss
of Rs5.02 billion on an operating income of Rs 504 million in FY17.
Economic and Political News
Govt approves steep MSP hike, 50% profit over input cost for rabi crops
Corporate News
RCom gets TDSAT relief, can go ahead with spectrum deal sans bank
Market Outlook
October 04, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur
well for Cooling products business which is out
Blue Star
5,586
580
867
49.5
pacing the market growth. EMPPAC division's
profitability
to
improve once operating
environment turns around.
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer segment, the company has increased its
Dewan Housing Finance
9,935
317
555
75.3
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity is immense.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster
ICICI Bank
1,95,361
304
416
37.0
resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost,
which would help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
2,899
370
589
59.2
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the
revenues and profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,826
320
475
48.4
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Strong brands and distribution network would
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,960
418
851
103.6
boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades
at an inexpensive valuation.
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
2,19,056
7,252
10,820
49.2
improve the company’s sales volume and
margins, respectively.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,421
264
540
104.5
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in
NIM improvement
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,640
735
1,071
45.7
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
24,314
110
198
80.0
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
2,093
249
410
64.7
Value Added Products and reduction in interest
cost is likely to boost margins and earnings in next
few years.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
HDFC Bank
5,51,913
2,031
2,350
15.7
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise
and healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 04, 2018
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect strong PAT growth on back of
healthy growth in automobile segment (on
back of new launches and facelifts in some of
M&M
98,355
791
1,050
32.7
the model ) and strong growth in Tractors
segment coupled by its strong brand recall
and improvement in rural sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner
(RAC) outsourced manufacturing space in India
with a market share of 55.4%. It is a one-stop
Amber Enterprises
2,925
930
1,230
32.3
solutions provider for the major brands in the
RAC industry and currently serves eight out of
the 10 top RAC brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India,
offering footwear, accessories and bags across
brands. We expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR
of
~16% to
~`3115cr over FY2018-20E
Bata India
11,759
915
1,243
35.8
mainly due to new product launches, higher
number of stores addition and focus on
women’s high growth segment and margin
improvement
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by
Shriram Transport Finance
rising bond yields on the back of stronger
24,487
1,079
1,764
63.5
pricing power and an enhancing ROE by
750bps over FY18-20E, supported by decline
in credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at
27%
CAGR over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong
steel demand and capacity addition. On the
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
18,091
187
327
74.9
bottom line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to
profit by FY19 on back of strong operating
margin improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel
equipment. GMM is expected to cross CAGR
GMM Pfaulder
1,413
967
1,287
33.1
15%+ in revenue over the next few years
mainly led by uptick in demand from user
industries and it is also expecting to increase its
share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the
Indian Pharmaceutical companies, is well
placed to face the challenging generic markets,
given its focus on achieving growth through
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
45,097
770
870
13.0
productivity. Aurobindo will report net revenue
& net profit CAGR of ~13% & ~8% resp.
during FY2018-20E. Valuations are cheap V/s
its peers and own fair multiples of 17-18x.
Well planned strategy to grow small business
loans and cross-selling would propel fees
Yes Bank
49,153
213
365
71.4
income. We expect YES to grow its advance
much higher than industry and improvement in
asset quality to support profitability.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy
CAGR of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers
RBL Bank
22,282
525
670
27.6
level ROA
(1.2% FY18) to expand led by
margin expansion and lower credit cost.
TTK Prestige has emerged as one of the
leading brands in kitchen appliances in India
after its successful transformation from a single
TTK Prestige
7,194
6,175
8,200
32.8
product company to offering an entire gamut
of home and kitchen appliances. We are
expecting a CAGR of 18% in revenue and 25%
in PAT over FY2018-20.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 04, 2018
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect Inox Wind to report exponential
growth in top-line and bottom-line over FY19-
20E. The growth would be led by changing
renewable energy industry dynamics in favor of
Inox Winds
1,906
86
127
47.7
wind energy segment viz. changes in auction
regime from Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) to reverse
auction regime and Government’s guidance for
10GW auction in FY19 and FY20 each.
Considering the strong CV demand due to
change in BS-VI emission norms (will trigger
pre-buying activities), pick up in construction
Ashok Leyland
34,889
119
156
31.1
activities and no significant impact on industry
due to recent axle load norms, we recommend
BUY on Ashok Leyland at current valuations.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,324
250
360
44.0
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
2,427
1,626
2,178
33.9
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,565
1,974
2,500
26.6
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
1,825
149
333
123.5
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
25,652
128
210
64.1
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Market Outlook
October 04, 2018
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Bloomberg Data
Date
Time Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Last Reported
Estimated
Oct 05, 2018
6:00 PMUS
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Sep
201.00Oct 05, 2018
6:00 PMUS
Unnemployment rate
%
Sep
3.90
2:30 PMIndia
RBI Reverse Repo rate
%
Oct 5
6.25
2:30 PMIndia
RBI Repo rate
%
Oct 5
6.50
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Sep
-
Oct 10, 2018
2:00 PMUK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Aug
0.90Oct 10, 2018
6:00 PMUS
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Sep
0.20
Oct 11, 2018
2:30 PMIndia
RBI Cash Reserve ratio
%
Oct 5
4.00Oct 11, 2018
Oct 12, 2018
5:30 PMIndia
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Aug
6.60Oct 12, 2018
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Sep
9.80
Oct 16, 2018
0-Jan-00UK
Jobless claims change
Thousands
Sep
8.70Oct 16, 2018
0-Jan-00China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Sep
2.30
Oct 19, 2018
0-Jan-00China
Real GDP (YoY)
% Change
3Q
6.70Oct 19, 2018
Oct 25, 2018
0-Jan-00Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates
%
Oct 25
-Oct 25, 2018
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 04, 2018
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
9.0
8.5
9.1
8.0
7.3
7.5
9.0
8.2
6.9
6.9
8.0
8.1
6.6
7.6
7.7
7.0
8.0
7.2
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.3
7.0
6.3
4.5
6.1
5.0
4.1
5.6
3.9
6.0
4.0
5.0
3.0
1.8
4.0
2.0
1.0
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
54.0
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.6
52.0
5.0
4.4
4.3
4.2
50.0
3.6
3.7
4.0
3.3
48.0
3.0
46.0
2.0
44.0
1.0
42.0
40.0
-
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
7.00
30.0
6.50
25.0
6.00
20.0
5.50
15.0
5.00
10.0
4.50
5.0
4.00
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 04, 2018
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
8.0
(%)
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.5
2.0
0.7
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research As of 03 Oct, 2018
Market Outlook
October 04, 2018
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
75,429
(4.0)
5.6
2.7
Russia
Micex
4,327
1.4
7.1
11.4
India
Nifty
11,515
0.7
6.1
14.1
China
Shanghai Composite
2,682
(1.5)
(11.3)
(20.8)
South Africa
Top 40
50,441
1.7
(1.7)
1.9
Mexico
Mexbol
49,612
2.2
6.3
(1.0)
Indonesia
LQ45
937
(2.7)
(2.6)
(4.7)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,804
(0.1)
1.6
1.7
Thailand
SET 50
1,136
2.5
0.7
9.9
USA
Dow Jones
26,155
3.4
3.9
17.5
UK
FTSE
7,304
(4.0)
(4.3)
0.7
Japan
Nikkei
23,095
4.0
1.1
19.8
Germany
DAX
12,124
(0.3)
(5.5)
(3.2)
France
CAC
5,353
0.9
(1.8)
2.1
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 03 Oct, 2018
Market Outlook
October 04, 2018
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
17-08-2018
Top Picks
Ashok Leyland
128
156
Open
10-08-2018
Top Picks
Inox Wind
107
127
Open
31-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
7,235
8,200
Open
09-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
6,206
7,500
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
30-08-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
626
690
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
30-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
918
1,007
Open
23-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
842
955
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
573
1016
Closed(17/08/2018)
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
27-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,170
1,287
Open
18-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,024
1,200
07-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
984
1,100
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
27-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
974
1,071
Open
14-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
868
1,000
07-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
788
870
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 04, 2018
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
FundamentalEndurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
October 04, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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